|T O P I C R E V I E W
||Posted - 10/12/2018 : 12:32:36
As I'm sure most of you know, ComicBase uses market pricing for its pricing source, processing something north of 2.1 million data points each week to pick the rolling average price for each comic in the database, with verified price data supplied by Atomic Avenue and Heritage Auctions.
The algorithm for deriving the current market price is pretty straightorward:
When comics are listed at a given price, it acts as a "nudge" in that direction, and when a comic actually _sells_ for a given price, it acts as a much sharper "shove" toward that price (albeit only for a short duration in time).
In addition, there's a certain amount of "sanity checking" built into the mix, meant to prevent a few stray data points from initiating unfounded price moves. In particular, larger price moves--up or down--require more data to be justified--otherwise, those prices are treated as "noise" and are thrown out.
One of the neat features of using market pricing as the basis for guide price is that pricing is inherently self-correcting--all it takes for out-of-whack pricing to go back to more usual levels is for comics to be listed and sold at more normal prices.
That said, we're always evaluating how well the pricing model is working, and in particular, we've raised the bar on how many data points are needed to accept wildly diverging price values. I.e., if The Amazing WonderGuy #3 had been selling for $5, but somebody suddenly manages to sell a copy for $50, it could be just a fluke--not a mark that the real price should be ten times last week's price. But if several people sell it for $50, it's a pretty good indication that the issue just got really hot, and that the guide value should move--quickly--toward the new market value. (We see this trend a lot when second-run titles get optioned as movie properties, or issues featuring the first appearances of obscure characters suddenly become superstars in their own right).
Particularly on issues where there isn't a lot of listing or sales activity to let things average out easily, it can be a real challenge to pick the right point where comics can still "get hot" suddenly, while preventing (as much as is possible) for a few rogue listings to be able to knock everyone else's guide pricing out of whack.
In the most recent content update, we took the rare step of manually adjusting pricing on about 1% of the comics in the database, which seem most likely to be price outliers, vs. trend data that would have been accepted under our newer, stricter pricing model. This may cause some much larger-than-average moves to your collection's stated value under ComicBase Statistics, but things should settle down again over the next several weeks, as the guide values gravitate to their true market-clearing price.
And ultimately, finding that market-clearing price--the price at which equal numbers of buyers and sellers are happy to exchange cash for comics or comics for cash--is ultimately what we're looking for. It does none of us any good if rogue data causes our issue of The Amazing WonderGuy to spike to the stratosphere, if the new guide value got so far out of whack that it takes far too long to settle down to a price where a copy could actually get sold.
Wanted to give everyone a heads-up to expect some bigger-than-average fluctuations in their collection's guide values in the next few weeks. As well, I'd like to invite folks to submit any particular comics you feel need some human review in terms of pricing to call them to our attention by writing to the editors at firstname.lastname@example.org. (We're also looking to make this sort of "Price Check" a more easily accessed feature in a later edition of the software--much as you can now Submit New or Corrected Data).
|7 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First)
||Posted - 11/01/2018 : 01:02:58
hi comicsrdr, i have too many to manually update, but thanks for the tip about being able to exclude pricing from the updates! i didn't ever notice that one before :)
hi comicsatemybrain, very good point!! i just went to the download page and downloaded the installer and it is from the 31st May 2018 which is perfect as none of my main comics have changed in value since then and it is well before the pricing correction :) i can reinstall then import my collection and i should be good to go!
||Posted - 10/31/2018 : 12:57:20
I don't think that you can "roll back" price changes to an earlier version.
However, if you have a back-up of your database from before the pricing updates, you could open that up and it will still have the old prices. If you decide to keep working with that database, make sure that your settings are set up to not update pricing when you update that particular database.
(Of course, this solution is only viable if you haven't done a lot of inventory changes since you made that back-up database file.)
||Posted - 10/31/2018 : 12:18:01
dan, you can manually set the price for any issue; you can also tell the updater to not change any of the issue values when it runs. I don't think you can run an update that will reset all the old prices, so maybe you'll just manually reset select issues that are priority for you, and then run weekly updates excluding price adjustments until you're ready to include them.
||Posted - 10/30/2018 : 00:59:31
Hi, I also have had a huge percentage of what I thought was a perfectly reasonable value (I cross-check high value items with Overstreet) wiped out from my collection with this pricing correction update.
Can you please advise how I can revert to the previous pricing from before this correction?
I will then keep this static and not update until the new pricing has settled down and is more realistic.
||Posted - 10/29/2018 : 17:50:53
I can certainly appreciate that prior to this "rebalancing" of pricing the values of some issues were not in line with reality.... but man, this "correction" seems to be WAY off-balance! I realize that the algorithm should begin to balance itself out over time, and that it utilizes a large number of data points in it's calculations... however, the algorithm and data points appear to not be reflective of any places that I shop online for comics.... like not at all. I am just concerned that some obscure sources of pricing data may be carrying too much weight and are skewing pricing as a result? Not sure. All I know is.. wow, this pricing correction is whacked.
||Posted - 10/27/2018 : 08:12:27
My collection went down $60K overnight! Most prices are now wrong where before they were at least close. A $4 dollar going to $2 is probably right, but higher priced comics going to $2.95 is just wrong. Batman 139 (1st Bat Girl) at $135 in NM is laughable. 8.5's just sold on ebay for $2,200 & $2,300. My VG copy is now valued at $36.00, where it should be $200-$300. Please put everything back as it was, then figure out the correct way to revise prices before rolling it out. I'm a big supporter of Comicbase (my youtube review has over 4K views!) Comicbase is used for Insurance reasons also, and this kills the real value. Please!!
||Posted - 10/13/2018 : 12:41:27
This was much needed; many, many of the issues I own were seriously out of whack. However, it would be been helpful to have more warning. I can understand why many would be upset to see their auto-adjusted selling prices drop with little/no warning. Just a suggestion for any future corrections of this significance.